This graphic highlights changes in global uranium production from 2013 to 2022. Over the past decade, world uranium output has declined by 16.81%, driven by a mix of market dynamics, operational challenges, and strategic adjustments. A major factor behind this drop is the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, which significantly reduced global demand, resulting in prolonged low uranium prices and widespread production cuts.
Key Factors Behind the Decline:
Post-Fukushima Demand Drop: The Fukushima disaster caused a sharp decrease in nuclear energy demand, leading to lower uranium prices and production cuts across the industry.
Low Uranium Prices: Persistently low prices made it unprofitable for many producers to maintain full capacity, resulting in mine closures and reduced output.
Mine Closures and Delays: Major mines like Australia’s Ranger and Canada’s McArthur River were closed or slowed due to weak market conditions, environmental regulations, and economic challenges.
Operational Challenges: Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer, faced technical issues like sulfuric acid shortages, which contributed to a slight decline in its production.
Voluntary Output Cuts: Leading producers, such as Kazakhstan, reduced production to balance supply and demand, stabilize prices, and preserve long-term reserves.
Country-Specific Trends:
Kazakhstan: Production fell from 22,451 tonnes in 2013 to 21,227 tonnes in 2022, as the country cut output to stabilize prices in response to market demand shifts and operational issues.
Canada: Output dropped from 9,331 tonnes to 7,351 tonnes due to low prices and the suspension of key operations, including the McArthur River mine, although focus on high-grade deposits has improved profitability.
Australia: Production declined from 6,350 tonnes to 4,553 tonnes due to mine closures, state-level mining restrictions, and weak market conditions, allowing Kazakhstan to dominate.
Growth in Emerging Markets:
Uzbekistan: An emerging player, Uzbekistan boosted its production from 2,400 tonnes to 3,300 tonnes between 2013 and 2022. The country’s “2030 Strategy” aims to double output, supported by foreign investments, new mining sites, and advanced in-situ leaching technology.
Namibia: Namibia increased output from 4,323 tonnes to 5,613 tonnes, driven by key developments like the reopening of the Langer Heinrich mine and expansions at the Husab and Rössing mines.
The Road Ahead:
World uranium production appears to have increased in 2023 and is projected to grow further in 2024. The global uranium market has been recovering from a prolonged downturn, driven by rising demand for nuclear energy amidst efforts to transition to low-carbon energy sources.
In 2023, several producers ramped up operations to meet this growing demand. For instance, Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium producer, has announced plans to increase its production by 2,000–3,000 tonnes of uranium in 2024 compared to 2023. This decision is supported by an uptick in long-term contracting and improved uranium prices, signaling a stronger market. However, logistical challenges and supply chain constraints remain significant hurdles to achieving these increases (source).
The improving uranium market dynamics suggest a positive trajectory for production, but the full extent of increases will depend on overcoming these operational and logistical challenges.
Country | tonnes U produced | Year |
Uzbekistan (est.) | 2400 | 2013 |
Uzbekistan (est.) | 3300 | 2022 |
Russia | 2,508 | 2022 |
Russia | 3135 | 2013 |
Rest of World | 2783 | 2022 |
Rest of World | 6823 | 2013 |
Niger | 2020 | 2022 |
Niger | 4518 | 2013 |
Namibia | 4323 | 2013 |
Namibia | 5613 | 2022 |
Kazakhstan | 21,227 | 2022 |
Kazakhstan | 22,451 | 2013 |
Canada | 7351 | 2022 |
Canada | 9331 | 2013 |
Australia | 4553 | 2022 |
Australia | 6350 | 2013 |
Source: World Nuclear Association